基于三期OLG模型的老龄社会城镇职工基本养老保险发放水平影响因素研究--以上海市为例

摘要

Based on the current situation in China, the impact of aging population on the urban basic pension insurance exists in two sides. This paper creates the III OLG Model by adding the period of education in lifecycle, and ifnds that the aging of population and the increasing of life expectancy will decrease the granting level of personal social pooling account, and increase the granting level of social pooling account. However, due to lacking of scientific adjustment mechanism, the urban basic pension fund is mainly affected by the policy. Thus, from the empirical analysis results, the demographic impacts of aging population and the extending of life expectancy on the granting level of pension fund are different in theory.%在已有的二期OLG模型基础上，将个人生命周期由传统的工作期、退休期两个时期划分为更符合现实的学习期、工作期、退休期三个时期，由此建立三期OLG理论模型。通过对理论模型的研究，发现人口预期寿命的延长将使个人账户最优发放水平不断增加，社会账户的发放水平则需要不断下降才能使其在个人、企业、政府以及资本市场的框架下实现均衡。在理论模型的基础上，从实证角度出发的分析发现，人口预期寿命延长、人口老龄化等人口因素对上海市养老金发放水平的影响与理论上有所偏差。这说明，上海市现阶段的养老保险发放水平缺乏一个科学合理的调整机制，受政策影响较大。长期来看，从根本上完善养老金的增长机制和发放机制，是解决人口老龄化背景下养老保险制度可持续发展的有效方法。