中国农业现代化与产业结构调整对城市化进程影响的实证研究

摘要

Principal component analysis was employed to set relevant variables based on China’s sample data from 1978 to 2011,and a vector error correct(VEC)model was built accordingly. Based on this model, pulse analysis and ANOVA were conducted for the relationship between modernization,agricultural modernization and industrial structure. Studies show that there exists a long term equilibrium con-integration relationship between modernization,agricultural moderniza-tion and industrial structure. Both agricultural modernization and industrial structure are the Grang-er causes of urbanization. Agricultural modernization and industrial restructuring have obviously active effects on urbanization process. In a short period,the effect of agricultural modernization on urbanization process is obviously larger than that of industrial restructuring;in a long run,industri-al reconstructing has obvious and sustainable effects on the process of urbanization.%根据我国1978-2011年的样本数据，采用主成分分析方法设定相关变量，据此建立向量误差修正模型( VEC)，并基于该模型，对城市化、农业现代化、产业结构三者之间的关系进行脉冲分析和方差分析。研究表明：城市化、农业现代化、产业结构三者之间存在长期均衡的协整关系，农业现代化与产业结构均是城市化的Granger原因，表明农业现代化的发展与产业结构的调整对城市化进程具有明显的促进作用，从短期看，农业现代化的发展对城市化进程的影响明显要大于产业结构调整对城市化进程的影响；从长期看，产业结构的调整对城市化进程具有明显的持续影响。