为分析改革开放以来中国减排政策的变化特征及趋势，构建了“情境－表达－结局”的分析框架，对1981－2015年7个“五年规划”及减排政策进行文本挖掘。研究结果表明：中国减排政策变迁历程基本符合“情境—表达—结局”的一般规律；对污染物排放的情境认知、政策表达及结局存在相对时间延滞；原有排放情境尚未根本改变，新的情境又陆续叠加，增加了环境治理压力。因此，既应正视“情境－表达－结局”的客观性，又应努力提升政策的前瞻性和预见性。%In order to explore the change characteristics and trends of reduction policies in China since reform and opening , the paper builds an analysis framework of context‐expression‐result for text mining of Five‐Year Plans (1981‐2015) and relevant reduction policies .The research shows that the change process of China's reduction policies is basically in line with the general patterns of context‐expression‐result framework .Meanwhile ,the relationships among context cognition ,poli‐cy expression and result for pollution emissions have relative time delay .It also finds that original emission context has not been fundamentally changed ,and new emission context has gradually emerged at the same time ,so the pressure of envi‐ronmental governance increases accordingly .Therefore ,the objectivity of context‐expression‐result should be highlighted , and policy prospective and predictability need to be improved .
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