基于社会感知分析的新兴技术发展趋势研究——以钙钛矿太阳能电池技术为例

摘要

How to detect and identify the future trend of emerging technologies with disruptive potential as early as possible is crucial for government R&D strategic planning and enterprises practices.As for avoiding the weakness of using publica-tions and patents to study the development trends of emerging technologies,this paper proposes a method to analyze the development trends of emerging technologies based on socially aware analysis.Firstly,the data mining method based on keywords semantic association and semantic theme analysis is used to extract and analyze the aware information of emer-ging technologies.Then,the development trends of emerging technologies is analyzed by"visualization"and"knowledge discovery"of emerging technology socially aware.Finally,the perovskite solar cells technology is as a case study to analyze the effectiveness and feasibility of the method.The method used in this paper provide a new perspective to study the devel-opment trends of emerging technologies.%如何尽早捕捉有颠覆性潜力的新兴技术发展趋势,对企业研发投资决策和政府研发战略决策具有重要参考价值.针对论文文献和专利数据研究新兴技术发展趋势的局限性,提出基于社会感知分析的新兴技术发展趋势研究模型.首先,利用基于关键词语义关联与语义主题分析的数据挖掘方法对新兴技术感知信息进行有效萃取和分析;其次,通过对新兴技术社会感知的可视化与知识发现,分析新兴技术发展趋势;最后,以钙钛矿太阳能电池技术为案例进行研究,验证社会感知分析在揭示新兴技术发展趋势方面的可行性和有效性,为新兴技术发展趋势研究提供新视角.