金融危机下企业技术创新风险预警的实证研究——以船舶企业为例

摘要

针对金融危机下企业技术创新风险的“蝴蝶效应”现象,提出了预警策略.结合船舶企业生产经营的主要特点,考虑了金融危机下外部环境的变化,使用AHP法分析了引起船舶企业技术创新风险的重要因素,利用BP神经网络建立了预警系统.对四家船舶上市公司进行了实证分析.输出结果说明了指标约简与LM - BP法相结合,预警的准确性和鲁棒性都增强了.准确预测了近几年船舶企业技术创新的风险状况,这有助于防范和控制措施的实施,对创新过程的管理具有决策支持作用.%An early -warning strategy was proposed for technology innovation risks subjected by "butterfly effect" under financial crisis. Combining main features of shipbuilding companies, considering changes in external environment under financial crisis, AHP method is used to analyze important factors induced into technology innovation risks, and BP neural network is applied to construct the early - warning system. Empirical research results show that combination of indicators of reduction and the LM - BP method, both accuracy and robustness is increased. Risks condition of the four shipbuilding companies are accurately predicted in recent years, which helpsed to the implementation, the management of the innovation process is provided with a decision support.