基于证据推理的供应链整体协调风险的识别与评估

摘要

This paper makes a detailed classification on the overall coordination risks of the supply chain from the view-point of system. In light of uncertainty inherent in this kind of risks, this paper uses the evidential reasoning ( ER) ap-proach for risk assessment. The ER approach can fuse certainty and uncertainty information, deal with risk assessment problems with various uncertainties and provide objective evidence for management decisions.%从系统的角度出发,对供应链中的整体协调风险进行分类,并针对供应链风险的不确定性等特点,将证据推理方法应用到供应链风险评估中.该方法能够实现确定信息和不确定信息的融合,并能处理有未知信息情况下的风险评估问题,能够为管理决策提供较为客观的依据.