需求模式及其动态特征对生产-分销库存影响的系统动力学仿真研究

摘要

The dynamic property of production - distribution inventory is affected by the demand mode and characteristics. This paper conducts simulation experiments by using system dynamic method to research this problem. The first model stud-ies how the different demand characteristics affect the inventory of production - distribution. We set three different demand functions that include step demand function,random normal demand function and sin wave demand function. We compare the bullwhip effects of three different demand functions before a simulation model was established by using system dynamics software called Vensim. The second model which is based on the first model adds the factor of Markov stochastic process. We simulate the manufacturer’s inventory and distributors’inventory before marketing strategies affect market’s demand changes. With the help of model simulation studies,we construct a simulation model of production and distribution,and draw the conclusion that market share monotonicity with Markov’s stochastic process has positive interrelation with invento-ry.%利用系统动力学的方法对生产-分销库存的动态性受需求模式与特征的影响进行仿真研究。第1个模型考虑三种不同的需求特征对生产-分销库存的影响，设置三种不同的需求函数，其中包括阶跃函数，正态函数和正弦函数。通过仿真比较不同需求函数的牛鞭效应。研究得出需求函数为阶跃函数时，它的牛鞭效应最大，正弦函数下的牛鞭效应不大且当需求函数增加一倍时，牛鞭效应几乎没有变化。需求函数为正态函数的牛鞭效应适中且当随机函数增加时牛鞭效应变化比较明显。模型2在模型1基础上考虑了 Markov 随机过程等因素，模拟一个市场由于营销策略导致产品需求变化后的生产分销库存变化过程。通过模型的仿真研究，得出 Markov 随机过程中市场占有率的单调性与库存之间存在正相关的结论。