基于 FFTA 的地铁火灾风险评估及控制研究

摘要

地铁人流集中，一旦发生火灾容易造成人员伤亡和财产损失，应对地铁火灾的风险进行评估。通过建立引起地铁火灾主要风险因素的故障树模型，运用模糊故障树分析方法（Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis）对地铁火灾的风险进行定量分析，得出地铁火灾事故发生的概率和故障树底事件的概率重要度和临界重要度，并对重要度的大小进行排序，为地铁火灾风险的有效控制提供应对措施，保证地铁系统的运营安全。%Subway is an area with high population concentration.Once there is a fire,it’s more likely to cause casualties and property losses.So we should evaluate the subway fire risk immediately.The paper analyzes quantitatively the subway fire risk by establishing a fault tree model of the main risk factors causing subway fires and using fuzzy fault tree analysis method.It obtains the probability of the subway fire accident,works out the probability importance degree and critical im-portance degree of fault tree’s bottom events,and sorts the importance degrees.These above can provide measures to con-trol effectively the subway fire risk and ensure the operation safety of subway system.