基于PVAR模型的长江中游城市群新型城镇化与科技创新关联性分析

摘要

Based on the panel data of 28 prefecture-level cities of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2005 to 2014,this paper uses the PVAR model to estimate the interaction between new urbanization and scientific and technological innovation.The result shows that scientific and technological innovation is conducive to the development of new urbanization,and the impact of the recent technological innovation on new urbanization is positive;the longer-term scientific and technological innovation will have a reverse effect of new urbanization;new urbanization development has positive impact on scientific and technological innovation,and the longer-term impact is positive;the medium-term impact becomes negative and the recent impact will turn from negative to positive,which means that there is a time lag in the interaction between scientific and technological innovation and new urbanization.The effect of new urbanization on scientific and technological innovation is stronger than the effect of scientific and technological innovation on new urbanization and there are regional differences.%基于2005-2014年长江中游城市群28个城市的面板数据,运用PVAR模型对新型城镇化与科技创新间的关联性进行估计,结果显示:科技创新有助于新型城镇化的发展,且近期的科技创新对新型城镇化的影响程度为正,较远期的科技创新会对新型城镇化的发展产生反向效果;新型城镇化的发展有利于科技创新,远期影响为正,中期影响效应变为负,近期又会由负转正.即科技创新与新型城镇化之间的动态关联关系具有时滞性,前期两者之间的互动效应为负,随时间的推移两者之间的影响由负转正;且新型城镇化对科技创新的影响效应强于科技创新对新型城镇化的影响效应,两者的互动关系存在较强的区域差异性.