人民币汇率重要吗？——中美双边贸易影响因素的实证分析

摘要

Renminbi Exchange rate is being blamed by many economists and politicians when talking about Sino-US bilateral trade. With monthly data from 1995 to 2009, this paper processes Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, Error Correction Model, and Variance Decomposition to investigate both the long run and short run effect of Renminbi exchange rate and some other relative variables on Sino-US trade. We find that, the US economy and China economy are the two factors which have most significant effect on Sino-US bilateral trade. An appreciation of Renminbi will depress China＇ s export to US, but its effect is much lower than that of real economy. In addition, joining the WTO have positive effect on China＇ s export to US, while has little effect on China＇s import from US.%人民币汇率在中美贸易不平衡的讨论中常常被作为攻讦对象。本文运用1995-2009年月度数据,基于贸易引力模型,通过经典的时间序列分析工具研究了人民币汇率及其它相关因素对中美双边贸易在长期和短期的影响。本文发现：相对于中美两国的实体经济而言,人民币汇率升值的影响很小;人民币汇率对中美贸易的影响符合＂J曲线效应＂。另外,加入WTO对于中国向美国的出口具有显著的促进作用,而对中国从美国进口的影响不显著。