从中国入世到上海自贸区扩区的产业连锁效应

摘要

The WTO accession promotes the opening and development of China's manufacturing industry,but the opening of the service industry is lagging behind.This paper uses Shanghai's economic data from 2002 to 2015 and the input-output table in 2002 and 2007 ,to analyze the industry chain effect from the openness of goods trade of China's WTO accession to the service industry openness of Shanghai's Free Trade Zone expansion.The results show that the driving effect of goods trade openness in Shanghai's service industry lags in manufacturing;the expansion of manufacturing openness promotes the integration of advanced manufacturing and high-tech service industry;the accession to WTO which causes the association of high-tech service industry and advanced manufacturing industry is strengthening,and the stagnation of service industry opening is not conducive to optimizing the industrial structure.Grey relational analysis results show that the openness of goods trade which causes the association of advanced manufacturing and high-tech service industry has a strong correlation;the correlation between low open service industry and high open advanced manufacturing industry is relatively weak,and the stagnation of service industry opening will restrict the integration of producer service industry and manufacturing industry.Therefore,as the dividends of globalization is transiting from the field of goods to services,it is essential to create a new situation of two-way openness.From 2013,the industry upgrade in Shanghai is accelerated,and the industry chain effect in Shanghai FTZ is shown.%加入世界贸易组织（WTO）推动了中国制造业开放，但服务业开放相对滞后。本文运用2002—2015年上海市经济数据和2002、2007年投入产出表分析从入世的货物贸易开放到上海自贸区扩区后，服务业开放的产业连锁效应。结果表明：货物贸易开放促进了先进制造业与高新技术型服务业的融合与关联度的加强，但对服务业其他部门的带动相对滞后于制造业，不利于产业结构优化。灰色关联分析结果也佐证了这一论点，开放度相对低的服务业部门与开放度高的先进制造业之间的关联度较低，服务业开放滞后制约了制造业与服务业的融合。随着全球化红利正在从货物领域转向服务领域，打造双向开放的新格局势在必行。2013年后，上海产业升级明显加速，自贸区的连锁效应初显。