Reveal of the law which cultivated land spatially distribution and changes to provide the basis for reasonable and effective farmland protection and regional development policies is significant. Previous studies on cultivated land spatial distribution and changes mostly assumed the units were mutual independent, ignoring the correlation of units, which may not cause the results uncover the characteristics of cultivated land spatial distribution and changes. With the help of spatial autocorrelation model and gravity center model, this paper analyzed the 1980-2009 cultivated land spatial distribution and changes in Jiangsu Province by building cultivated land index and cultivated land change index. The results indicates that: cultivated land spatial distribution and changes in Jiangsu displays serious imbalance, with sparse and reduced areas mainly in Suxichang Region, cluster and increased or basically stable areas mainly in Suzhong Region and Subei Region;cultivated land distribution and changes has spatial autocorrelation phenomenon, leading to 2009 distribution spatial autocorrelation pattern in which Suzhou and Wuxi Urban are in High- High area and Shuyang and Lianshui Counties in Low-Low area, also leading to 2000-2009 diversification spatial autocorrelation pattern where Low-Low area includes Suzhou city and High- High area included Baoying and Xinghua Counties;compared to 1980, 2009 cultivated land distribution centroid shifts towards the northeast.%揭示耕地空间分布与变化规律,可为制定合理有效的耕地保护和区域发展政策提供依据.以往关于耕地空间分布与变化研究大多以单元间相互独立为假设条件,忽视单元之间相关性,这可能致使结果不能客观揭示耕地空间分布与变化特征.本文构建耕地指数与耕地变化指数,借助空间自相关与重心分析模型,对江苏省1980-2009年耕地空间分布与变化进行分析.研究结果表明:江苏省耕地空间分布与变化表现出严重不均衡,2009年耕地稀疏区与减少区主要分布在苏锡常,耕地集聚区、增加区和基本稳定区主要分布在苏中与苏北；耕地空间分布与变化具有空间自相关现象,2009年江苏耕地分布形成包括苏州、无锡市区在内的低—低相关区和沭阳、涟水在内的高—高相关区相对应的空间分布格局,2000-2009年耕地变化的低—低相关区包括苏州全部县(市),高—高相关区包括盐城中东部与宝应县、兴化市；相比1980年,2009年耕地分布重心向东北方偏移.
展开▼
