采用重心迁移模型、基尼系数等模型,从区域、省域和县域不同尺度定量分析1998年以来中国粮食生产的时空演进特征.结果表明:(1)1998～2010年间,粮食总产量增加了0.34亿t,粮食总产量较低的区域处于控制地位且主要分布在胡焕庸线以西地区；粮食总产量较高的区域集中在东北平原、黄淮海平原、成都平原、江汉平原等；粮食总产量的两极分化趋势加剧并向主产县域集中,人均粮食占有量区域差异增大,人均粮食占有量接近的单元在空间上积聚.(2)1998～2009年间,省域和县城的粮食生产向北方集中,人口却向南方积聚,粮食区域供需矛盾加剧.(3)基于1998年县域粮食总产量、1998年人均粮食占有量和1998～2009年间人均粮食净变化量将研究区划为6类,输入需求强、人均粮食占有量递减型的县域个数最多.明确不同区域粮食增产的努力方向,创新国家公共资源投入与区域粮食生产级别相挂钩的配置政策,是保障国家粮食安全的重要途径.%Based on GIS and spatial analysis, this paper systematically analyzed the overall trend and regional patterns of grain production from 1998 to 2010. The results showed that: (1) The amount of grain production increased by 30 million ton from 1998 to 2010, absolute difference has been expanding fluctuate while per capita grain possession at county level in China showed a significantly trend of positive spatial correlation. Counties with higher grain production were concentrating in Northeast Plain, Huang-huai-hai Plain, Chengdu Plain, Jianghan Plain and etc; while counties with lower grain production were clustering in the west of "Hu Huanyong Line". (2) At provincial level and county level, the gravity centers of China's grain production moved to northern while the gravity centers of population distribution moved to southern. The situation of sending grains from the Northern to the Southern will be continued and inconsistency of regional grain supply and demand will be aggravated. (3)Categorized by the level of county grain production in 1998, per capita grain possession in 1998 and increase of per capita grain possession, counties were divided into 6 growth types of grain production, and more attention should be paid to the type that with higher grain production and lower net-income. It is very important to realize a mechanism and policy innovation for guaranteeing national food security.
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