运用生态足迹理论计算吉林省1998-2010年的人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力,分析人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力的动态变化.结合生态赤字、生态协调系数、生态足迹多样性指数、万元GDP生态赤字、生态经济系统发展能力,分析吉林省近13年的可持续发展状况,结果表明:人均生态足迹在1998-2010年一直保持增长的趋势,从1.7841hm2/人增长到3.2013hm2/人,人均生态承载力从1.3535hm2/人减少到1.3028hm2/人,生态赤字从0.4306hm2/人增大到1.8985hm2/人,吉林省的发展处于不可持续的状态.在1998-2010年期间,生态协调系数都比较接近1.414,属于基本不协调.生态足迹多样性整体呈下降趋势,发展能力指数由2.1429升到3.0902.万元GDP生态赤字先升后降:从1998年的0.7308hm2/万元升到2002年的0.9888hm2/万元,最后降到2010年的0.6016hm2/万元.灰色预测模型显示:2011-2020年,吉林省人均生态足迹将由3.4833hm2/人增大到5.7022hm2/人,人均生态承载力由1.2978hm2/人降到1.2676hm2/人,生态赤字将由2.1855hm2/人增大到4.4346hm2/人.吉林省必须采取一系列有效的措施,改变现有的经济发展模式、加大科技创新、提高人民素质,否则,生态赤字将会不断加大,可持续发展状况进一步恶化.%This paper calculates the ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in Jilin Province during 1998 to 2010 by using the ecological footprint theory, and analyzes the dynamic changes of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita, finally combines with the models of ecological deficit, ecological coordination quotient, the index of ecological footprint diversity, ecological deficit per 10000 RMB GDP, development capacity of ecological economics system, etc, to analyze the state of sustainable development near 13-year in Jilin Province. The results indicate that, in 1998 to 2010, the ecological footprint per capita increased continuously from 1.7841 hm2 per capita to 3.2013 hm2 per capita and ecological capacity per capita dropped from 1.3535 hm2 per capita to 1.3028 hm2 per capita, and ecological deficit increased from 0.4306 hm2 per capita to 1.8985 hm2 per capita, which showed the development of Jilin Province was in an unsustainable status. In the same period, the ecological coordination quotient was very closely to 1.414 showing that the development was uncoordinated, the index of ecological footprint diversity has been declining in these years, the index of development capacity increased from 2.1429 to 3.0902, the ecological deficit per 10000 RMB GDP increased first and then decreased: it increased from 0.7308 hm2 to 0.9888 hm2 between 1998 and 2002, and dropped to 0.6016 hm2 in 2010. The gray prediction model shows the ecological footprint per capita will increase from 3.4833 hm2 per capita to 5.7022 hm2 per capita between 2011 and 2020 in Jilin Province, ecological capacity per capita will drop from 1.2978 hm2 per capita to 1.2676 hm2 per capita and ecological deficit will increase from 2.1855 hm2 per capita to 4.4346 hm2 per capita. Jilin Province must take a series of effective measures to change the existing mode of economic development and improve the innovations of science and technology, and promote the quality of the people. Otherwise, the ecological deficit will continue to increase, the situation of sustainable development will deteriorate further.
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