基于DPSIR模型的长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化评价

摘要

基于DPSIR模型框架，构建起低碳经济发展评价指标体系，采用专家打分法、熵权法、线性加权法相结合的方法，对长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化进行定量评价，探讨长沙市低碳经济发展的路径。结果表明，长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化过程中，驱动力子系统评价指数呈稳步上升的发展态势，由2000的0.0406上升到2013年的0.1665；压力子系统评价指数个别年份有小幅下降，但总体增长趋势明显；状态子系统评价指数持续降低，2013年下降趋势得以遏制；影响子系统评价指数经历先降后升的发展阶段后，2013年再次回落；响应子系统评价指数经前期的波浪式增减后快速稳步提升。2000-2005年系统综合评价指数基本稳定在0.36左右，长沙市经济低碳化经过前期低水平均衡阶段后，系统综合评价指数由2005年的0.3806持续稳步增长到2013年的0.6805。研究表明，长沙市低碳经济发展水平尽管实现了等级跨越，但目前尚处于中高碳经济发展的起步阶段，仍有极大的提升空间。因此，优化产业结构和能源消费结构，倡导低碳生产、生活方式，增加碳汇能力，是长沙市低碳经济未来发展方向。%Applying the expert scoring method, entropy weight method, and linear weighting method, this paper built an evaluation index system of the low-carbon economy development under the DPSIR model framework to quantitatively evaluate the low-carbon economy development level in Changsha City, and to explore the optimal paths for the low-carbon economy development in Changsha. Results show that 1) in the low-carbon development process of Changsha City, the evaluation index of driving force subsystem showed a steady upward development trend, increased from 0.040 6 in 2000 to 0.166 5 in 2013; 2) the evaluation index of pressure subsystem declined slightly in some years, but the overall growth trend was obvious; 3) the evaluation index of status subsystem continued to decrease till 2013 and then began to change; 4) the index of impact subsystem fell again in 2013 after experiencing downs then ups; 5) the evaluation index of response subsystem displayed steady and rapid growth after some lfuctuations; and 6) the comprehensive system evaluation index was stabilized at around 0.36 from 2000 to 2005, and then continued to grow steadily from 0.380 6 in 2005 to 0.680 5 in 2013 after low-balanced development stage. This research also found that the economy development of Changsha had some breakthroughs, but it still stayed the initial stage of the middle-high-carbon economic development, and has great potential to improve. Therefore, this paper suggests that the future development direction of Changsha low-carbon economy should focus on the optimizing the industrial structure and energy consumption structure, promoting low-carbon production and lifestyle, and increasing the capacity of carbon sinks.