贸易自由化条件下中国羊肉国际竞争力及出口影响因素研究

摘要

Based on the characteristics of production and trade of mutton between China and the world, this paper analyzed the international competitiveness of Chinese mutton from the perspectives of production costs, prices and international competitiveness indexes. Based on gravity model and Heckman two-stage model, the paper also explored the influencing factors of the export of Chinese lamb under the establishment of China-New Zealand FTA. Results show that Chinese mutton are not very competitive in the international market since China’s domestic market is close to equilibrium. The inlfuencing factors, including the distance between China and its export country or region, mutton output, and exchange rates, have important inlfuence on the export of Chinese mutton. The FTA between China and New Zealand slowed down the export of Chinese mutton. Finally, to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese mutton, this paper suggests focusing on domestic production, attracting international resources, strengthening the quality of agricultural products, accelerating trade with the neighboring countries and promoting to the upgrading of meet sheep industry in the context of FTA.%本文在分析中国及世界羊肉生产与贸易状况的基础上，利用生产成本、出口价格以及相关国际竞争力指数对我国羊肉的国际竞争力进行了评价，并结合中新FTA签订生效，运用引力模型与Heckman两阶段模型对我国羊肉出口的影响因素展开实证分析。结果显示：中国羊肉国际竞争力整体水平不高，且国内市场处于供求紧平衡状态；与出口对象国（地区）距离、中国羊肉产量与汇率是影响我国羊肉出口的主要因素；中国与新西兰自由贸易协议抑制了中国羊肉出口。最后，从立足国内生产、引进国际资源、加强农牧产品质量监管、发展周边国家贸易以及借助自由贸易发展推动产业升级提出了相应对策建议。