淮河流域农业生产水平与资源环境协调度评价研究

摘要

Taking 35 cities in Huaihe Basin as samples and applying Delphi method, this paper constructed a comprehensive index to evaluate the coordinating degree between agricultural production capacity and resource environment in 2008 and 2012. Then the paper examined the spatial cluster structure from three different perspectives, including agricultural production capacity, resource environment security, and the coordination between them. Results show that, during 2008 to 2012, the agricultural production capacity of all cities has improved with an average increase of 11.75 points. The security degree of resource environment has increased by 3.6 points with a relative lower growth rate compared with that of agricultural production capacity. Results also show the development and protection of different cities are not balanced, leading to a spatially clustered structure of agricultural production capacity and the resource environment in 2008 and 2012 in this region. The low coordination cities in a northwest-southeast strip pattern, transferred to the west of the basin. The overall coordination degree decreased from 0.14 in 2008 to -0.11 in 2012, and the overall situation was signiifcantly worsened. To assure the development quality of modern agriculture in the future, in addition to the improvement of the policy and regulation system of agricultural rural environment, the government also should establish a basin compensation mechanism and pay more attention to the spatial matching and efifciency improvement between development and resource utilization in Huaihe Basin.%以淮河流域35个地级市为研究单元，采用特尔斐法，分析淮河流域2008年和2012年的农业生产水平、资源环境保障度、农业生产与资源环境协调度三个方面的综合水平，探讨其时空聚类格局。结果表明，2008-2012年5年间，淮河流域各市的农业生产水平全面提高，整体平均提高11.75分；整体资源环境保障度上升3.6分，其上升速度远低于生产水平发展的速度；区域之间的开发和保护存在不平衡，使本区域农业生产与资源环境的协调度发生空间聚集，并且在5年间，协调度低的城市以西北—东南走向的条带状格局向西转移。本区域整体的农业生产与资源环境协调度均值从2008年的0.14下降到2012年的-0.11，恶化态势明显。淮河流域全区须尽快健全保护农业农村环境的政策法规体系、建立起流域补偿机制等，更加注意发展与资源利用之间的时空匹配与效率提高，保障现代农业未来一段时间的发展质量。