Farmers' "double cropping to single cropping change" reflects the dynamic change of the rice cropping pattern selection, which is affected by the economic historical conditions and the characteristics of the land itself. Based on a survey data of rice farmers from 4 southern provinces of the middle-down Yangtze River plain and applying a binary logistic model, this paper analyzed the commonly adopted production modes and investigated the influencing factors of cropping pattern selection. Results show that this area mainly has two production modes: single-cropping and double-cropping. Agricultural machinery and social service reduced labor time and helped farmers to adopt double season cropping pattern. Lot characteristics significantly affect rice farmers' cropping pattern selection: farmers tend to choose double cropping for the land of flatness, short distance to home, high soil quality, and non-cold waterlogged, and farmers tend to select single season cropping for the land with characteristics of poor irrigation or machines accessibility. Families with lack of agricultural labor and low degree of commercialization tend to choose single cropping pattern. Therefore, to improve rice cropping index, this paper suggests to focus on improving agricultural machinery and social services, promoting land remediation, and fostering specialized households.%稻农"双改单"行为反映了农户水稻种植模式选择动态变化过程,既受经济历史条件的影响,也受地块本身特征的制约.基于长江中下游地区4省稻农入户调查数据,采用二元logistics模型,从地块层面的微观视角分析长江中下游地区稻农常用的种植模式及其种植模式选择的影响因素.结果表明,长江中下游地区主要有单季稻和双季稻2类种植模式.农业机械和社会化服务节约了稻农劳动时间,农户倾向于种植双季稻.地块特征是影响稻农种植模式选择的重要因素,丘陵水田、离家距离近、土壤质量高、非冷浸田地块,农户倾向于种植双季稻;灌溉条件差和机器通达程度低,农户倾向于种植单季稻.家庭可用农业劳动力少和种粮商品化程度低,农户倾向于种植单季稻.因此,提高水稻复种指数,可以从提高水稻综合机械化率和社会化服务水平、土地整治和培育种粮大户方面入手.
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