Agricultural modernization is a dynamic development process. In order to understand the development trend of agricultural modernization and to bring the modernization of agriculture to a higher development level. It is necessary to carry out a scientific and quantitative evaluation of agricultural modernization. Based on the statistical data of agricultural modernization in Shaanxi Province since 2007, and applying the Delphi method and multi-level analysis method, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system of agricultural modernization in Shaanxi Province, which includes four criteria indicators and 13 specific indicators, to analyze the development trend and structural characteristics of agricultural modernization of Shaanxi Province. In addition, this paper also explored the advantages and disadvantages of Shaanxi Province during the process of agricultural modernization. Results show that:1) in 2015, the development of modern agriculture in Shaanxi Province has made a great progress and the development level of agricultural modernization has transformed from the initial stage steadily into the basic implementation stage. The comprehensive score reached 75.40 points; 2) the standard level of agricultural modernization transformed from good to excellent and the compliance rate reached 83.78％; and 3) there are still many challenges in the development of modern agriculture in Shaanxi Province, including slow progress of the level of sustainable development of agricultural modernization, unbalanced development, and lower development levels evaluated by the 7 specific indicators compared to the national averages. To promote the development of agricultural modernization in Shaanxi Province, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: strengthening the ecological protection and improving the sustainable development of agriculture, focusing on the weak links of modern agriculture and optimizing the standard of agricultural modernization, and enhancing the construction of independent innovation capability and catching up with the development level of agricultural modernization in China.%农业现代化是一个具有时代性的动态发展过程,为了及时把握农业现代化的发展动态,使农业现代化能够得到更高水平的发展,有必要对农业现代化发展水平进行科学的定量综合评价.基于2007年以来陕西省农业现代化的统计数据,采用德尔菲法与多层次分析法相结合的方法,构建陕西省农业现代化综合评价指标体系,分析农业现代化在4项准则指标,13项具体指标下的发展动态及其结构特征,并进一步探讨陕西省在农业现代化发展进程中的优势和短板.结果表明,2015年陕西省现代农业建设取得了巨大进步,农业现代化发展水平从起步阶段稳步跨入基本实现阶段,综合得分达到75.40分.农业现代化达标水平也从良好达标发展到优等达标,达标率达到83.78％.但陕西省现代农业建设还存在很多短板,农业现代化可持续发展水平未取得进展,指标达标结构不平衡,7项具体指标发展水平低于全国水平.因此,为促进陕西省农业现代化发展,提出了加强生态保护,提高农业可持续发展能力;主攻现代农业薄弱环节,优化农业现代化整体达标结构;加强自主创新能力建设,追赶全国农业现代化发展水平等建议.
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