基于STIRPAT模型的陕西省工业碳排放量预测和情景分析

摘要

Constructing the STIRPAT model,this paper quantitatively analyzed the relationship between the industrial carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province and some factors including the scale of industrial economy,industrial output per capita,energy intensity and energy structure.Through ridge regression analysis,it revealed that the total industrial assets,industrial added value per capita,energy consumption of industrial added value per unit and ratio of coal consumption change every 1％,the changing rate of Shaanxi Province industrial carbon emissions will be 0.231％,0.148％,0.561％ and 2.242％ respectively.By constructing the prediction model and setting 8 different development scenarios,it analyzed the development trend of Shaanxi Province industrial carbon emissions.The results show that the industrial carbon emissions growth of Shaanxi Province can be controlled by keeping the proper economic increase,maintaining the decline in energy intensity and energy structure optimization.%构建STIRPAT模型,定量分析陕西省工业碳排放量与工业经济规模、人均工业增加值、能源强度和能源结构之间的关系.通过岭回归分析后发现,工业经济规模、人均工业增加值、单位工业增加值能耗和原煤消费比每变化1％,陕西省工业碳排放量将发生0.231％,0.148％,0.561％和2.242％的变化.确定预测模型,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析陕西省工业碳排放量的发展趋势.结果表明,保持经济适度增长、能源强度下降和能源结构优化,能够控制陕西省工业碳排放量增长.