The Peak Value of Carbon Emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on the STIRPAT Model and Scenario Design

摘要

The main objective of this paper was seeking suitable scenarios for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, where both socio-economic development and low-carbon targets would be achieved. Potential driven factors of carbon emissions, including population, affluence, urbanization level, technology level, industrial construction, and energy consumption construction were selected to build an extended stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model, where ridge regression was applied to ensure its stability. The STIRPAT model showed the significance of each independent variable, which was the foundation of CO2 emissions' prediction. Furthermore, eight scenarios were established to explore the possible carbon footprints and the maximum of CO2 in the period from 2013 to 2050. This paper finally proposed the strategies that can be applied to reduce future carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Applying reasonable policies about improvement of technological level, and adjustment of industry and energy consumption structures is a critical factor for the control of CO2 emissions.