中国大陆1998年以来PM2.5浓度时空分异规律

摘要

In order to solve the problem that few studies focused on the spatial and temporal variation of PM2.5 concentration in long time series under the national spatial scale,based on the existing PM2.5 concentration raster datasets in mainland China during year 1998 to 2000,2001 to 2003,2004 to 2006,2007 to 2009,and 2010 to 2012,and integrating with the estimated PM2.5 concentrations by GAM modeling method during year 2013 to 2015,this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations in mainland China during the long time series from 1998 to 2015 by spatial analysis methods.Results show that:PM2.5 concentrations presented undulating growth trend in mainland China during year 1998 to 2015 and the mean PM2.5 concentrations increased by 8.2μg/m3 during the eighteen years;the spatial distribution characteristics of PM.2.5 concentrations in mainland China obviously turned to be "three high and two low";the area of PM2.5 pollution in the mainland showed a ladder upward trend and pollution levels showed a deepening-slowdown trend.%针对鲜有研究从全国空间尺度揭露长时间序列下PM25浓度时空分异规律的问题,利用中国大陆地区1998～2000年、2001～2003年、2004～2006年、2007～2009年、2010～2012年的PM25栅格数据集产品和基于广义可加模型得到的2013～2015年PM25浓度模拟结果,通过空间数据统计分析,探究中国大陆地区近18年来PM25浓度的时空变化格局.结果表明:1998～2015年期间,大陆地区PM25浓度呈现起伏增长趋势,18年间PM25平均浓度增长8.2μg/m3;PM2.5浓度空间分布呈现明显三高两低的分布特征;PM25污染范围的面积表现出阶梯上升趋势,污染程度表现为先加深后减缓的变化趋势.