对配电变压器进行状态评估和剩余寿命预测，是开展状态检修的重要前提。以变压器历年的健康指数HI为基础，提出了一种基于交叉熵理论的配电变压器寿命组合预测模型。在剩余寿命模型中运用故障概率密度函数并引入交叉熵理论动态确定改进灰色理论和改进马尔科夫两个单一预测算法的权重。模型考虑了配电变压器寿命周期中故障概率密度函数形状参数和尺度参数的变化，实现了对变压器全寿命周期健康指数的评估和预测，确定了健康指数的分布函数。最后通过实际数据验证了模型的有效性和合理性，相比于单一预测法更符合实际情况。%Distribution transformer condition assessment and remaining life prediction is an important prerequisite to carry out condition-based maintenance. This paper, based on the transformer health index (HI) of each year, puts forward a kind of distribution transformer life combination forecast model based on the theory of cross entropy. In residual life model, failure probability density function and cross entropy theory are introduced to dynamically determine the weight of the improved gray theory and Markov prediction algorithm. Considering the change of the shape parameter and scale parameter of failure probability density function in the life cycle of the distribution transformer, it realizes the evaluation of the full life cycle of transformer’s health index and determines the distribution function of the health index. Actual data verify the effectiveness and reasonability of the model. It is more in line with the actual situation compared to a single prediction method.
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