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Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Combination Forecasting Method Based on Similar Day and Cross Entropy Theory

机译:基于相似日和交叉熵理论的光伏发电短期组合预测方法

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The forecast for photovoltaic (PV) power generation is of great significance for the operation and control of power system. In this paper, a short-term combination forecasting model for PV power based on similar day and cross entropy theory is proposed. The main influencing factors of PV power are analyzed. From the perspective of entropy theory, considering distance entropy and grey relation entropy, a comprehensive index is proposed to select similar days. Then, the least square support vector machine (LSSVM), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA), and back propagation (BP) neural network are used to forecast PV power, respectively. The weights of three single forecasting methods are dynamically set by the cross entropy algorithm and the short-term combination forecasting model for PV power is established. The results show that this method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of PV power and is of great significance to real-time economical dispatch.
机译:光伏发电预测对电力系统的运行和控制具有重要意义。提出了基于相似日和交叉熵理论的光伏发电短期组合预测模型。分析了光伏发电的主要影响因素。从熵理论的角度出发,考虑距离熵和灰色关联熵,提出了选择相似天数的综合指标。然后,分别使用最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM),自回归和移动平均(ARMA)和反向传播(BP)神经网络来预测PV功率。通过交叉熵算法动态设置三种单一预测方法的权重,建立了光伏发电短期组合预测模型。结果表明,该方法可以有效提高光伏发电的预测精度,对实时经济调度具有重要意义。

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