缺失故障数据元件的可靠性评估方法研究

摘要

电力系统元件的可靠性评估是电力系统安全、可靠运行的关键环节。根据电力系统中元件实际运行记录的特点，提出了一种缺失故障数据元件的实用可靠性评估方法。该方法基于威布尔分布模型，系统地建立了电力元件的样本筛选、参数计算、模型检验、故障率曲线绘制和数据缺失元件可靠性评估的计算与求解方法。以实际变压器为例，验证了该法的有效性，并分析了电压等级、生产厂家、产品型号对变压器可靠性的影响，为电力元件可靠性评估的实际应用提供了系统有效的方法。%The reliability assessment of power system com-ponents is the key to the safe and reliable operation of the power system.According to the characteristics of the actual operation record of power system components, a practical system of reliability evaluation for components with missing fault data is introduced in this paper. Based on Weibull distribution model, the system systematically establishes the sample selection,par-ameter calculation, model checking, and failure rate curve drawing of power system components as well as the reliability evaluation calculation and solving methods of the fault system with missing data components. Taking the transformer as an example,this paper verifies the effectiveness of the proposed system. In addition,the paper analyzes the effects of the voltage grade,manufacturer and product types on the reliability of the transformer,and therefore provides a systematic and effective way for the practical application of the reliability evaluation of electrical components.