船闸设计通过能力的不确定性分析

摘要

The planning lock capacity of ship lock is an important basis for determining the scale and standard of the lock construction.Because of the large deviation between the three key parameters such as ship type, ship water level difference and cargo flow in the lock design stage, there is a large deviation from the actual situation, which leads to a serious deviation from the forecast result and thus affects the accuracy of the scale and layout of the lock.Taking the actual operation data of a ship lock in Jiangsu Province for example, we analyze and compare the difference between the above-mentioned three parameters in the planning and actual operation stage using the capacity calculation method recommended by the lock design specification, and make a conformance checking of the berthing conditions. The results show that the lock design parameters have great influences on the analysis of the lock capacity, and the result of lock capacity calculated by combing the ship standard and water level is seriously conservative.In order to improve the accuracy of the planning for the lock capacity, further analysis and demonstration shall be carried out to the ship type and water level combination.%船闸规划通过能力是确定船闸建设规模和标准的重要依据.由于在船闸规划阶段对船型、 船闸上下游水位差以及货物流量、 流向等3个关键参数选用与实际情况通常存在较大的偏差,导致预测结果出现严重的偏离,存在较大的不确定性,从而影响到船闸规模和布局论证的准确性.以江苏某船闸实际运行数据为例,运用船闸设计规范推荐的通过能力计算方法,对船闸上述3个参数在规划设计和实际运行两个不同阶段的差异进行分析对比,并对停泊条件做了符合性验算.结果表明:船闸设计参数对船闸通过能力分析结论影响巨大,按规范推荐船型和水位组合计算的船闸通过能力结果严重偏保守.在船闸规划设计阶段应该对船型及水位组合做进一步分析论证,才能提高船闸通过能力规划的准确性.