延迟退休与养老金财富关系的定量考察

摘要

延迟退休定调为“渐进式”改革，但民众普遍担心利益受损。本文通过养老金财富损益模型，运用交叉分析法，定量考察延迟退休对养老金财富的影响，其影响方向和程度取决于参数的不同组合。在可能的参数组合下，养老金财富都存在上升的区间，即延迟退休不等于利益受损；当预期寿命可预知时，延迟退休的最长年限具有一定稳定性和可预见性；女性延长退休年限的空间大于男性，延长相同年限时，女性获益程度高于男性。对此，延迟退休政策应分人群实施，并在实行法定延退的同时推行弹性退休制度；有必要保持养老金参数的可预见性和稳定性，以便职工理性选择；根据养老金财富影响参数的变化，建立相应的利益调整机制等。%Postpone retirement is defined as “progressive” reforms, but most people worry about loss.Based on pension wealth model , this paper made a quantitative study of the impact of postpone retirement on pension wealth using cross analysis , The results show its impact depends on different combinations of parameters . There is rising pension wealth range under possible parameter combinations , which means delay retirement does not equal loss; when life expectancy is predictable , the longest delay retirement age has a certain stability and predictability; extension space of retirement age for women is longer than men , to extend the same time , women will get more benefit than men .Therefore, the delay retirement policies should be distinguished for different group , and implementing mandatory postpone retirement and flexible retirement at the same time .It is necessary to maintain predictability and stability of parameters for workers rational choice ;to build corresponding interest adjustment mechanism etc .based on changes of the impact parameters .