人口城市化驱动经济增长机制的实证研究

摘要

This article aims explored the population urbanization effect on the economic growth in China based on the panel data of 2005-2013 through the method of spatial panel data model. The results show that the population urbanization can significantly affect industry structure, the urban residents consumption, the capacity of the innovation, the government expenditure, the capacity of the technology spillovers. The influence mechanism of the population urbanization on the economic growth varies by the different areas. In the eastern area, it effects the economic growth through industry structure, the ability of the urban residents expenditure, the capacity of the innovation. In the central area, it is the capacity of the technology spillovers, the power of the government spending power and the capacity of the innovation. In the western area, the population urbanization can drive the economic growth through all the channels of the article set.%基于2005－2013年全国内地除西藏外30个省级地区的面板数据，建立空间面板数据模型对我国人口城市化驱动经济增长的路径进行研究，结果表明，人口城市化通过显著影响产业结构、城市居民的消费能力、地区的自主创新能力、政府的消费能力、技术溢出及扩散能力拉动经济的增长。人口城市化驱动经济增长的渠道因地区不同而存在差异，其中，东部地区人口城市化主要通过显著影响产业结构、城市居民的消费水平、自主创新能力来驱动经济增长。中部地区人口城市化主要通过显著影响技术溢出、扩散能力、政府的消费能力以及自主创新能力驱动经济增长。西部地区的人口城市化主要通过显著影响所设定的全部渠道驱动经济增长。