Population Age Structure, Urbanization and Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Study Based on G20’s Panel Data

摘要

This paper examines the internal transmission mechanisms of population age structure and urbanization to real exchange rate based on G20’s panel data over 1993-2016 periods. “Balassa-Samuelson effect” and “Factor endowment effect” are main channels that population age structure affect U.S dollar real exchange rate, and “demand structure effect” is not significant. The improvement of urbanization rate has significant positive effect on U.S dollar real exchange rate through “Balassa-Samuelson effect” and “Factor endowment effect” has significant negative effect on U.S dollar real exchange rate through “demand structure effect”. On the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, we put forward suggestions to suppress the negative effects of aging on productivity.