破解中国高储蓄率之谜--来自人口年龄结构变化的解释

摘要

Since the beginning of the reform and opening, China’ s economy has developed at high speed, and the saving rate has set the new records, which is known as “China’ s high saving rate dilemma” �What are the reasons?This paper constructed a social savings rate model on the basis of individual savings model, and investigated the impacts of demographic changes on the saving rate, and then engaged an empirical analysis on Chinese panel data from 1989 to 2012 . The results of system GMM and threshold regression show that: children ’ s dependency ratio shows a significant negative correlation with saving rate, and the negative effect declines with the improvement of income level�While elderly dependency ratio shows a significant positive correlation with saving rate, and the positive effect enhances with the improvement of income level�After calculation:children’ s dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio can explain 19% of the growth in China ’ s saving rate�The conclusion is that:the new feature of the coexistence of “low birth rate” and “aging” in demographic changes in China is an important reason why the saving rate has been reaching new heights.%改革开放30多年以来，中国经济持续高速发展，与之对应的是储蓄率的屡创新高，被称为“中国式高储蓄率困境”，其原因何在？本文在个体储蓄模型的基础上构建了社会储蓄率模型，考察了人口年龄结构变化对储蓄率的影响，并利用1989－2012年中国省级面板数据进行实证检验。系统广义矩估计和门槛回归结果表明：少儿抚养比与储蓄率呈现显著的负相关关系，并且该负效应随着收入水平的提高而减弱；而老年抚养比与储蓄率呈现显著的正相关关系，并且该正向影响随着收入水平的提高而增强。经测算，少儿抚养比和老年抚养比这两个人口年龄结构指标能解释中国储蓄率增长的19％。文章结论表明，少子化和老龄化的人口年龄结构新特征是导致我国储蓄率持续攀升的不可忽视的重要原因。