汶川中强余震发展节律及其精确多项式对6级以上强余震趋势的预测研究

摘要

By the analysis of Wenchuan earthquake sequence, it is found that the numerable rhythm of Ms≥ 4.7 aftershocks exists. The stronger aftershocks occurred at rhythm peaks repeatedly. Based on this rhythm, the authors made a mathematical model that provides a predicting method of Ms ≥ 6. 0 strong aftershock tendency for the Wenehuan seismic area.%对汶川地震序列分析,发现该序列中Ms≥4.7级余震活动有一定的可数节律,且强余震发生在节律节点上有重复特征。基于上述现象,对该节律建立了一个数学模型,为定量地预测震区6级以上强余震趋势提供了一个预测研究的方法。