研究基于贮存可靠性数据的导弹寿命预测方法,给出科学和切合实际的导弹贮存寿命.根据导弹贮存状态下的定期批检结果,采用"残差平方和(R2)"最小原则,给出一定服役期内导弹故障率,故障率上、下置信区间计算方法,以及最优拟合函数模型,给出导弹在有空调库房、无空调库房和露天场地条件下的贮存可靠度及其置信区间.按照无故障概率不小于0.7的判断标准,以某型导弹定期检测数据信息进行寿命预测分析,结果符合实际.该方法实用可行,可以为导弹延寿可靠性分析提供借鉴.%A missile life span prediction method was researched based on the reliability data of missiles in storage condition. The scientific and practical missile storage life span was provided. According to periodic inspection of missile in storage situation, use the principle of minimum "residual quadratic sum(R2)", the failure rate of missiles on the service period and the calculation method for the upper and lower confidence interval of the failure rate are put forward as well as the optimal fitting function model. The missile's storage reliability and its confidence interval were also obtained when the missile was put in the circumstance of air-conditioned storehouse, ordinary temperature storehouse and open air. According to the standard that failure-free rate should be higher than 0.7, the life span of missiles was analyzed based on the periodical check-data of a certain type of missiles and the results were conformed to the reality. The prediction method was proved practical and provided reference of reliability analysis for missile prolongs life.
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