基于模糊决策模型的高速公路环境风险评价

摘要

we constructed an evaluation systems of highway environment risks under unconventional emergencies In this paper, and proposed a model combining fuzzy logic with multi-objective decision-making and analytic hierarchy based on fuzzy multi-objective decision, its advantage is that a priority ranking regular may been gained based on expert knowledge and system variables comparing with a traditional multi-objective decision-making model,when a parameter imported was changing into language variable. A numerical example about comparing two highway segments environment was given, and sensitivity analyses though weighting the sub-criteria and criteria were also given to verify it' s scientific on evaluating highway environment risks.%本文构建了非常规突发事件下的高速公路环境风险评价的目标体系,将模糊逻辑与多目标决策、层次分析法相结合,提出一种基于模糊多目标决策模型.它与传统的多目标决策模型相比,将输入参量转化为语言变量后,获得一个集专家知识、系统变量间关系为基础的优势得分排序规则,可对不确定环境下的多目标及其子目标进行决策评价.通过设计一个高速公路路段环境评价的算例,并对其目标及子目标进行敏感性分析,验证这种决策方法在评价高速公路环境风险上的科学性.