一种基于一维元胞自动机的灾害后果推演模型

摘要

The consequence of emergencies evolves over time.In order to have a general idea of the developing trend of the consequence, a consequence deduction model of emergency is proposed in this paper.Firstly, con-cerning the similarities of emergency consequences, a description of the principle of consequence evolution is giv-en from the perspective of hazard bearing body.Then, this paper proposes a consequence deduction model of emergency based on one-dimensional cellular automata and all the properties of the model are built.Finally, the validity of the model is illustrated by two numerical examples.The model can be used for various emergencies and the result can support emergency decision-making.%突发事件发生后，其灾害后果随时间不断演变。了解灾害后果的发展趋势，有助于快速应急响应，为此提出了一种灾害后果推演模型。首先从承灾体角度，考虑灾害后果的共性，描述了突发事件灾害后果的演化机理；然后提出基于一维元胞自动机的灾害后果推演模型，完成了对元胞、元胞空间、邻居和规则的设置。最后，通过两个算例说明了本文提出模型的有效性。该模型适用于多种突发事件，推演的结果能为应急决策提供支持。