Hot mudflow disaster that occurred in Sidoarjo area, Indonesia and prediction model and simulation based on cellular automata

摘要

Hot mudflow disaster that occurred in Sidoarjo area, Indonesia on May 29 2006 is reported and a prediction model and simulation based on cellular automata is proposed for reducing mudflow disaster impact. We assume that mudflow has similar characteristic to the well-known fluid dynamic model. Therefore we adopt dynamic model of fluid for hot mudflow model. The input parameters of the model are landscape data, mud volume per-day, and obstacle such as dikes and buildings. An approximation model based on the cellular automata for creation of a novel model of mudflow is relatively simple and powerful. The important properties of the proposed model depend on neighborhood definition and rules. We use eight neighborhood cells together with the moment that is described with Gaussian function. Cellular automata rules are built with landscape and obstacle data. Then the simulation results of mudflow are visualized as a fluid dynamic model.