海洋工程项目工期可靠性定量评估方法研究

摘要

由于海洋环境的复杂多样性,影响海洋工程项目实施工期的不确定因素很多,包括施工工艺、海域海况条件、资源投入等,如何定量评估工期可靠性,确保工期实现概率在可接受范围内,是海洋工程进度管理的难点和重点.计划评审技术(PERT)作为工程项目计划编制和控制的重要方法之一,应用于海洋工程项目工期可靠性评估中可以定量计算计划工期的实现概率;运用风险准则(ALARP)的理论可以判断工期的风险等级,据此采取对应的控制措施,可以有效降低工期风险,提高工期可靠性,并作为项目决策和事前控制的依据.某项目导管架海上安装具体实例验证的结果表明,该方法具有一定的工程实用性,对于海洋工程项目进度控制具有良好的推广价值.%Because of complex diversity of the marine environment,a lot of uncertain factors impact the ocean engineering project duration,including the construction technology,the sea state conditions,resources input,etc.How to quantitatively evaluate the reliability for duration,to ensure the duration implementation probability in acceptable range are the emphasis and difficulty for ocean engineering project management.PERT (Program/Project Evaluation and Review Technique) is one of the most important methods in project planning and control.Using PERT can quantitatively calculate the probability of the realization of the plan period,and using ALARP criterion can determine the risk level of duration.Taking corresponding control measures can effectively reduce the time duration risk,improve the reliability of time limit,and be as the basis of project decision-making and beforehand control.The results of jacket offshore installation on a project show that the method has a certain engineering practicability and has good popularization value for ocean engineering project progress control.