Using the Gibbs equation to describe the mechanical behavior of slender rod in this paper, considering the change of its material quality and the influence of rod collar, and based on the rule of suspension point of chain pumping unit and working character of side stream reducing load pump, the upper and lower boundary condition of axial vibration rod string is got and the model of dynamic prediction of ultra-deep pumping system is establish. The result of example calculation shows that predicting indicator diagram is extremely identical with the measured value. The errors of predicting maximum and minimum loads of suspension point are respectively 2.7％ and 2.2％. The strength check of rod strings is following finished and the rod string is designed again. As a result, the maximum load of suspension point falls by 26.8％ and lifting efficiency rises 15.3％. All of these provide a dynamic prediction method for the system of ultra-deep pumping well.%采用Gibbs波动方程描述细长杆柱的力学行为,考虑杆材变化和接箍的影响,基于链条式抽油机悬点运动规律和侧流减载泵的工作特性,提出抽油杆柱轴向振动的上、下边界条件,建立了超深抽系统的动态预测数学模型.实例计算表明,预测示功图与实测示功图相吻合,预测悬点最大载荷、最小载荷误差分别为2.7%、2.2%.对试验井所用杆柱进行了强度校核,并重新进行了杆柱设计,使悬点最大载荷降低了26.8%,举升效率提高了15.3%,为侧流减载泵举升系统提供了一套动态预测方法.
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