河北省海冰灾害风险评估和区划研究

摘要

开展海冰灾害风险评估和区划，有助于指导结冰海区沿岸各级政府制定和优化海冰防灾减灾决策，以最大限度地减轻海冰灾害造成的损失。本研究选取冰厚、密集度及冰期和各类承灾体密度、规模等作为评估指标，将河北省沿海县级行政区所辖海域作为基本评估单元，利用权重分析等方法，对河北省的海冰灾害风险进行综合评估。在此基础上，结合海冰防灾减灾的实际需求对河北省的海冰灾害风险进行空间区域的等级划分，并绘制风险等级分布图。所得结果较为真实地揭示了海冰灾害风险在河北省所辖海域的分布状况，可为河北省的海冰灾害风险管理等提供依据。%The risk assessment and zoning of sea ice disaster are helpful to guide the governments to formulate and optimize the decision-making of sea ice disaster prevention and reduction at the frozen sea area ,and to mitigate the loss caused by sea ice disaster to the greatest extent.In this paper,the thickness,concentration and period of sea ice and the all kinds of concentration,scale of all kind of disaster-bearing bodies are selected as assessment index,and the jurisdiction of the sea under Hebei Province coastal county-level administrative region are selected as the basic assess-ment units,the risk of sea ice disaster in Hebei Province is assessed comprehensively by method of weight analysis.On this basis,the risk of sea ice disaster in Hebei Province is zoned by the actual requirements on disaster prevention and mitigation of sea ice,and the distribution of risk grades is plotted.The results reveal the distribution of risk of sea ice disaster and could provide basis for the risk management of sea ice in Hebei Province.