经济增长、生育政策与生育率--基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

摘要

Based on different levels of development,different birth policies and different regions of the world over the period 1970-2009,our empirical analysis tests the U-shaped relationship between economic growth and fertility that some scholars draw on recently. By taking different samples,adding policy dump into explanatory variables,controlling more related key variables such as level of women education,the rate of urbanization,industrialization. The result supports the U hypothesis ,economic growth in the overall low level of economic development and fertility show high negative correlation,but when economic growth reaches a certain level,the income effect replacing the substitution effect on fertility plays a major role in promoting,if complemented by relevant in-centive policies and measures,there will be a slight rebound in fertility. Therefore, the countries such as China have taken birth control policy can be combined with economic and social development indicators on balance,timely adjust policies.%文章基于不同发展水平、采取不同生育政策分布在不同地区的十个国家1970-2009年的面板数据对经济增长、生育政策与生育率之间的关系进行实证分析，对近年来部分学者提出的经济增长与生育率之间的U形关系，采取选择不同样本、加入政策变量和其他与生育率相关的重要经济指标如妇女的教育程度、城镇化率、工业化率等进行再检验，结果支持该假说，经济增长在经济发展程度整体较低的阶段与生育率呈现较高的负相关，但当经济增长达到一定程度时，收入效应取代替代效应对生育率起主要推动作用，如果再辅之以相关的激励政策和措施，生育率会出现轻微的反弹。因此，对于已采取生育控制政策的国家，可以结合经济社会发展指标权衡利弊，适时调整政策。