Policy lag refers to time intervals of public policy from commitment to implement. Provincial policy of home-based for aged has a clear statistical distribution characteristic ,Since the home-based for aged policy formally promulgated ,the provinces development are not the same. Assuming policy lag of home-based for aged as the dependent variable ,make an re-gression analysis using the Kaplan-Meyer survival model and the discrete time logistic model. The results show that the provincial home-care policy for aged output 20-40 months later than the central government. And policy lag is affected by external objective factors including population of the elderly,medical expenditure,city construction conditions, among them , administrative type,the scale of city,comprehensive economic indicators have significant influences. The municipality directly under the central government has the shortest time-delay ,and the ethnic autonomous provinces has 31 months average time-delay. Only increasing the intensity and subsidies can not reduce the home-cared for aged policy lag. The feasible way is to improve the openness and transparency of the policy process ,and the design of province policy should attache more impor-tance in regional conditions so that the effect of home-care policies can be peomoted.%政策时滞指公共政策从公开承诺到付诸实现的时间间隔，不同类型的政策时滞具有不同的特点。我国居家养老政策自中央正式颁布以来，各省份的发展情况不尽相同。以中央到省级居家养老政策时滞为因变量，利用Kaplan-Meyer生存函数分布，分析我国中央至省级居家养老政策时滞的一般性规律，利用离散时间logistic模型对影响省级居家养老政策时滞的因素进行回归分析，结果显示我国省级居家养老政策产出高峰期为中央政策出台后的20-40个月之间。老年人口规模、医疗支出、城市建设条件等外部客体因素对政策时滞影响较小，而行政类型、所辖地级市数量，综合经济指标等因素影响显著。其中，直辖市的政策时滞最短，民族自治省份政策时滞时间较长，平均政策时滞时间为31个月。中央-省级居家养老政策时滞主要受政府内部因素影响，单纯的加大拨款和补贴力度并不能达到减少居家养老政策时滞的效果。居家养老政策出台过程的公开化、透明化、注重结合地区发展条件，才是消除政策时滞内部性，提高政策效率的可行途径。
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