基于贝叶斯网络的船舶自沉事故后果预测

摘要

针对船舶自沉事故频发的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的模型预测船舶自沉事故后果和评价船舶自沉事故应急措施.该模型从人、环境、船舶和管理等4个方面综合分析影响船舶自沉事故后果的因素,并对28起自沉事故进行案例分析.研究结果表明,该模型能充分利用船舶自沉事故发生时的主客观信息,对船舶自沉事故后果进行有效预测,并对事故应急措施进行较为客观的评价,为决策降低船舶自沉事故后果提供理论支撑.%To predict the consequence of ship foundering accidents and to evaluate the effective consequence control measures,a model is proposed using the Bayesian Network (BN).The proposed model can effectively analyze factors affecting the consequence of such accidents from the perspective of the human errors,environment,ship,and management.The application of the proposed approach is demonstrated by analyzing such 28 accidents.The obtained results seem reasonable and effective consequence control measures are proposed as theoretical support for the decision-making in maritime department and the shipping company to alleviate consequences.