基于生态敏感性的土地人口承载力研究--以杭州市为例

摘要

Taking Hangzhou city as an example, this paper gives an study on land population supporting capacity from the point of ecological sensitivity, takes terrain conditions, land use type,the intensity of regional development, and ecological environmental sensitivity as assessment factors, and then uses principal components analysis to confirm weight and carry on comprehensive evaluation. Results show that, in , there are the high ecological sensitivity areas, the intermediate ecological sensitivity areas, general sensitive areas and non sensitive areas. The ecological sensitivity increases progressively from the city center to the periphery.This paper also draws lessons from the idea of the principal functional zoning division and population bearing capacity calculation method under ecological land constraints, and then gives land population bearing capacity of each partition. However, no matter what method, is no more than the population carrying capacity limit, and relative to current population, there is a certain margin.%以生态敏感性作为土地人口承载力研究的切入点，以杭州市为例，选取地形条件、土地利用类型、区域开发强度和生态环境敏感性为评价因子，采用主成份分析法确定权重并进行综合评价。结果表明，杭州市分为高度敏感区、中度敏感区、一般敏感区和非敏感区四大类，其生态敏感程度由市中心向外围递增。借鉴主体功能区划的思路和生态用地约束下的人口承载力计算方法，给出了各分区的土地人口承载力，但无论是采用哪一种标准测算，杭州市区都没有超过人口承载力的极限，且相对于现状人口而言，还有一定的余量。