特大城市外来商业服务业人口发展规律初探--以北京、上海、广州为例

摘要

以北京、上海、广州三个典型特大城市为例，采用人口普查数据，对2000年与2010年三市及其46个区县的职业结构开展实证分析，重点研究外来商业服务业人口的发展特征及其影响因素。研究发现，城市层面商业服务业人口的数量和比重均实现了快速增长，且外来人口已成为商业服务业人口的主体；区县层面商业服务业人口中外来人口比例随社会发展阶段提升、本地人口教育水平提高、老人和少儿人口比例增加而提高。为此，特大城市人口规模调控的关键在于提高本地人口的就业率以及从事商业服务业的比例，以减少对外来人口替代性就业的需求。%This paper focused on Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, three Chinese megacities and conducted empirical research using the 2000 and 2010 Census Data to explore the occupation structure at the city level and the district-level respectively, especially focused on the migrant sales and service employment population. Findings showed that the population and its proportion in the sales and service sector have both grown rapidly, and migrants are becoming the majority of the sales and service employment population at the city level. At the district level, the proportion of migrants in the sales and service employment increases with more advanced social development stage, higher education level of local residents, and larger senior and children proportions. Therefore, the key measures to control population in megacities is to increase the employment rate of local population, and the proportion of sales and service employment as a means to substitute the demand for migrants.