ANP-FE与数值模拟结合在地铁隧道近接施工风险评估与管理中的应用

摘要

Regarding the existing risk assessment and management problems encountered by subway tunnel projects during adjacent excavations,a new concept of risk management is put forward by combining ANP-FE with numerical simulation.Based on a risk assessment index system for adjacent construction of subway tunnels established through investigation,research,and analysis,the ANP and FE were combined in risk assessment to avoid the interdependence of risk factors and the fuzziness in feedback.Protective and control measures regarding the risk assessment results were determined.Furthermore,a numerical simulation was carried out in order to verify the effectiveness and scientific credibility of this assessment method.Finally,the concrete implementation process of the risk assessment and management method was illustrated in detail by using the adjacent excavation of the subway tunnel on the Guangzhou Subway line 6 as an example.The results show that this theoretical system and method can effectively evaluate,control,and manage the risks in adjacent excavation of a subway tunnel and improve the science of the evaluation process.%文章针对地铁隧道近接施工工程风险评估与管理问题,提出了将ANP-FE和数值模拟结合起来的一种全新风险管理理念和方法；在调查、研究和分析得到地铁隧道近接施工风险评价指标体系的基础上,将ANP与FE结合起来对风险进行评估,以解决风险影响因素之间相互依存和反馈的模糊性问题；然后以风险评价结果为依据,制定风险防范和控制措施；进一步对采取对策后的工程开展数值模拟,以此来检验措施的有效性和评价方法的科学性；最后,以广州地铁6号线某近接工程为研究对象,对该风险评估与管理方法的具体实施过程做了详细阐述.实践证明,该理论体系和方法能够有效地对地铁隧道近接施工工程的风险进行评估、控制和管理,提高风险评估过程的科学性.