近58年民勤绿洲气温变化特征分析

摘要

According to yearly temperature datas of Minqin weather stations from 1953 to 2010 ,using trend analysis, Mann-Kendall,the moving average method, nearly 58 years temperature monthly, quarterly, annual, deeadal and nearly 10 years variation were analyzed,The results showed that: ①The average temperature in monthly, quarterly, annual and decadal showed increasing trends and suddenly changed in 1989, nearly 10 years was the warmest period in recent 58 years.②The average of the lowest (highest)temperatures monthly, quarterly, annual and decadal showed increasing trend, the warming trend was slightly different ,the lowest temperature warming significantly larger than the maximum temperature.The mean minimum temperature suddenly changed in 1987, the average maximum temperature was suddenly changed in 1989, the mean minimum temperature of nearly 10 years average maximum temperature showed slightly lower than in the 1990s.③Extreme low temperature days showed significantly reducing trends, extreme high temperature days showed a slightly increasing trend and diurnal temperature trend was significantly reduced. History of extreme low (high) temperature appear in the Last 10 Years.④Elevated temperature made Minqin heat resources change, the active accumulated temperature increases.The situation were favorable to the cultivation of cotton and other cash crops.%根据民勤气象站1953—2010年逐年气温资料,利用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall、滑动平均等方法分析了近58年民勤气温月、季、年、年代际及近10年的变化特征,结果表明：①平均气温月、季、年及年代际均呈升高趋势,1989年出现突变,近10年是58年中最暖的时期。②平均最低（高）气温的月、季、年及年代际均呈升高趋势,升温趋势略有差异,最低温度比最高温度升温明显大,平均最低气温1987年出现突变,平均最高气温1989年出现突变,近10年平均最低气温最高、平均最高气温略低于20世纪90年代。③极端低温日呈明显减少的趋势,极端高温日数呈略微增多的趋势,气温日较差呈显著减小的趋势。历史极端低（高）温均出现在近10年。④气温的升高使民勤热量资源发生变化,活动积温增大,对种植棉花等经济作物有利。