SARS疫情对中国交通运输业和电信业的影响分析

摘要

交通运输业和电信业被认为是中国2003年SARS期间受影响的两个典型产业,本研究收集了1997 ～2003年中国内地的客运量数据和电信业务量数据,采用灰色系统理论预测模型定量评估SARS对交通运输业和电信业造成的影响.通过两个行业数据和SARS疫情数据的时间序列关系分析,发现SARS疫情对交通运输业造成的负面影响很大,而且损失是不可恢复的,损失峰值与疫情死亡人数峰值保持同步,疫情对电信业发展并没有产生预想中的明显推动作用.%Transportation and telecommunications were considered two typical sectors affected by the SARS outbreak in China in 2003:Data on transportation and telecommunications in mainland China between 1997 and 2003 were collected, using the gray system theory prediction model to quantificationally assess the impact of SARS on transportation and telecommunications. Time series analysis of the data on these two sectors and SARS found that the negative impact of SARS on transportation was huge, and that the loss was unrecoverable. The loss peak of the transportation industry and SARS-related death peak was synchronized. The impact of SARS on telecommunications did not promote the development of this sector as much as expected.