基于多对流参数的武汉地区雷电活动预报方法研究

摘要

利用2011-2013年6-8月291个样本武汉站的探空资料计算了20种与雷电活动有关的对流参数,经统计分析后发现多个对流参数与雷电活动具有显著的相关性;选取与雷电相关性较好的对流参数作为预报因子,并用多元线性回归方法建立雷电潜势预报方程,方程通过了α=0.05的显著性水平检验;使用2014年6-8月的观测数据进行预报效果检验,结果表明:雷电预报的命中率POD为82.6％,虚假报警率FAR为23.3％,临界成功指数CSI为63.3％.由此可见,该方法的建立对武汉市雷电天气的预报和预警具有参考价值和指示意义.%An analysis is made of the statistical characteristics of 20 convective indexes in 291 samples from June to August,2011 to 2013 in Wuhan and their correlation with lightning activities.The results indicate that the correlation between some convective indexes and lightning activities is good.The equation of lightning probability potential forecast is constructed by means of multi-dimensional linear regression using those convective indexes for prediction with consideration of each index in close correlation with lightning activities,and passed the significance test of α =0.05.Using the lightning data from June to August in 2014,the forecast results are verified.The results show that:Percent of Doom (POD) is 82.6％,False Alarm Rate (FAR) is 23.3％,Critical Success Index (CSI) is 63.3％.It is obvious that this method has better indicative significance and reference value for Wuhan lightning activity forecasting and warning.