A system and method for predicting the probability of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, ‘frequent’, more than 2 strikes per minute on average, cloud to ground lightning strikes, and/or ‘numerous’, more than 4 strikes per minute on average, through the use of polarimetric radar is presented. The data volume created by the polarimetric radar is processed to identify the type of hydrometeors in each range cell. For each vertical column, the maximum height of the graupel is compared to the lowest height of ice crystals in the volume. In the event that the lowest height of ice crystals is ambiguous, the height of the temperature where ice crystals form, −10° C., may be substituted for the lowest height of the ice crystals. Probability density functions are applied to the height difference to determine the probability of cloud to ground lightning within the column. Lightning probability product data are displayed on a visualization system in a georeferenced manner providing georeferenced lightning warnings. A forecast of the probabilities of cloud-to-ground lightning is determined by simple translation using storm track properties.
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