1960—2008年京津冀地区夏季高温日数的变化趋势分析

摘要

Based on the arranged daily maximum air temperature data from 83 stations in the Beijing-Tianjin -Hebei region（Jingjinji） during the summer of 1960-2008,the temporal and spatial distributions of summer high temperature days（SHTD,daily maximum temperature equal to or higher than 35℃） in Jingjinji are studied with a focus on the long-trends.The line trend analysis and moving t test are used in the analysis.The results show that the SHTDs in Jingjinji display a spatial distribution pattern of ＂more in the south and less in the north＂.And the high center is located near the Nangong Station in the south. The SHTDs in Jingjinji have an evolutional trend of increasing-decreasing-increasing,and do not have significant linear trends.But there exist mainly a decreasing linear trend in the south and an increasing linear trend in the north.By using the moving t test,two points of sudden change are detected,which occurred in 1972 and 1996,respectively.However,the SHTDs in the north of Jingjinji have only a change point. Compared with those during 1960-1972,more SHTDs occurred over Jingjinji during 1997-2008 and the years with more SHTDs are more centralized.The SHTDs during 1997-2008 reveal a significant decreasing trend.%基于整理的京津冀地区83个台站1960—2008年夏季逐日日最高气温资料,采用趋势分析和滑动t检验方法分析了近50年京津冀夏季高温日数的时空特征及变化趋势。结果表明：1960—2008年京津冀夏季高温日数在空间上呈现出＂南多北少＂的分布特征,高值中心位于南部的南宫附近,在时间上呈现出＂多—少—多＂的年代际变化特征,无显著的线性变化趋势,但其南部夏季高温日数主要呈减少趋势,北部主要呈增加趋势。京津冀夏季高温日数有两个突变点,即从1972年由多变少,从1996年由少变多,但其北部只有一个突变点。与1960—1972年京津冀夏季高温日数偏多期相比,近12年（1997—2008年）京津冀夏季高温日数偏多且出现的年份更为集中,在此期间京津冀及其南北部夏季高温日数呈现明显的减弱趋势。