基于新一代天气雷达产品闽西南强对流天气临近预报方法研究

摘要

利用2003—2008年福建龙岩新一代天气雷达资料和常规探空资料,对闽西南历史冰雹及闽西雷雨大风天气发生的环境条件进行统计分析,建立历史冰雹和雷雨大风天气过程对应的新一代天气雷达产品判别指标。利用判别方程、新一代天气雷达产品和探空资料联合开展强对流天气临近预报预警方法研究：首先利用Fisher判别分析方法建立冰雹天气的判别方程,主要用于冰雹天气的判断,再利用雷雨大风的判别指标对雷雨大风和强雷暴天气进行第二次判别。通过历史过程的回报和2009年的试报表明：该系统对闽西南冰雹天气预报准确率较高,雷雨大风准确率次之。同时,利用风暴单体识别与跟踪的预测方法对冰雹预报结果和实况进行统计,表明风暴单体识别和跟踪算法（SCIT）预报准确率较高,可以用于风暴未来移速移向的预报。%By using the radar of Longyan CINRAD/SA from 2003 to 2008 and T-／np data,the environmental conditions of historical hail in southeastern Fujian and thunderstorm and gale weather in Western Fujian were analyzed and the CINRAD/SA products＇ discriminant indices of historical hail weather and thunderstorm and gale weather in Southeastern Fujian were statistically established.Utilizing discriminant equations, CINRAD/SA products and T-lnp data,we carry out the strong convective weather nowcasting and the research of warning methods.First,we set up Fisher discriminant equations,which are mainly used to identify hail weather.Then we set up the second Fisher discriminant equations,which are mainly used to identify thunderstorm and gale weather.Through the hindcast of historical process and the 2009 trial forecast, it is shown that the forecast accuracy for hail weather system in southwestern Fujian is higher than that of the thunderstorm and gale weather in western Fujian.Using SCIT（storm cell identification and tracking） algorithm,the hail forecasting and validation were statistically tested,results showed that the SCIT method forecasts accurately and it can be used to forecast the storm moving speed and direction.